Because of the lack of data on food production, the best a statistician can do is to infer food production based on the caloric needs of the population. Some of the problems in africa include a large informal. Morten jerven teaches at the school for international studies at simon fraser university in vancouver, canada. Thinking about growth and development in africa morten jerven, poor numbers. Unfortunately, this guesstimate is further weakened by its usage of a necessary guesstimate of. While it has no technical details, poor numbers is nevertheless aimed at people with at least some familiarity with development issues, african history and geography, and economics. The world ank explains that when the data are missing, the ank uses za method for filling the data gap, which is based on the assumption that the growth of the variable from a period for which data exists has been the same as the average growth for those other countries in the same regional or income. Huge discrepancies and alarming gaps in statistical knowledge exist about productivity, income distribution, and population and any ranking of african economies. H ow w e ar e m i sl ed by afr i can d evel opm ent stati sti cs and w hat to d o about it. What do we really know about economic growth, wealth, the population or the structure of the economy in africa. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it, by morten jerven. Richard harper, the social organization of the imfs.
As patchy and problematic as they are, these numbers are nevertheless ubiquitous as instruments of both proof and government. He has a phd in economic history from the london school of economics and has published widely on african economic development, particularly on patterns of economic growth and on economic development statistics. I just published a new article in the journal of african history the history of african poverty by numbers. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it, is unfortunate. Morten your first book, lets focus on this question of poor numbers. To the extent that governments can influence their macroeconomic data, some. What do we know about income and growth in subsaharan africa. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it cornell studies in political economy jerven, morten on. The history of poverty in africa by numbers posted on february 6, 2019 february 6, 2019 i just published a new article in the journal of african history the history of african poverty by numbers. Thereareseriouslimitstowhatcanbeknown,andwhichissues canberesolved,throughcounting. Jerven begins with a brief introduction to the concept of gross domestic product and some of its complexities.
On the accuracy of trade and gdp statistics in africa. In practice this has meant sorting countries into developmental cohorts on the basis of macroeconomic data, with countries in poorer cohorts gaining access to more and more concessional aid programs. Morten jerven, economic growth and measurement reconsidered in botswana, kenya, tanzania, and zambia. Last week african arguments published a story that prof morten jerven, author of. Jerven, poor numbers, and morten jerven and deborah johnston, statistical tragedy in africa. Morten jervens poor numbers sheds light on the acute fragility of african statistics, itself linked to the precarious conditions in which aggregates are produced. The title of morten jervens engaging and valuable new book, poor numbers. Economists and historians approaching the african past. Despite all of the problems, and the risks of garbage in, garbage out, jerven s conclusion stresses the importance of numbers, calling for qualitative rigor and interdisciplinary approaches, and defends the concept of gdp as too important to be ignored, even if the numbers are too poor to be trusted blindly. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it. The journal of african history, 593, 449461 i have posted by ungated preproof version of the article here. As morten jerven of simon fraser university explains. In his classic text on the accuracy of economic statistics morgenstern 1963 warned about the problem of misreporting. Morten jervens evaluation reveals how the statistical capacities of subsaharan african economies have fallen into disarray.
Quantified fictions take shape in complex statistical. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it, cornell university press, 20. Morten jerven explains why we know less than we should about what is happening in african economies, and why this is leading economists to the wrong recommendations. Poor numbers are too important to be dismissed as just that. Morten jerven will highjack the african statistical development programme. Development by numbers a primer development research.
View enhanced pdf access article on wiley online library html view download pdf for offline viewing. The four phases of the african state in the 20th century about. Poor numbers by morten jerven pdf, ebook read online perlego. Morten jerven s research shows how the statistical capacities of subsaharan african economies have fallen into disarray. Click download or read online button to get chapter 7 numbers policy paradox the art of political decision making book now. Acces pdf poor numbers how we are misled by african development statistics morten jerven pronouncement poor numbers how we are misled by african development statistics morten jerven can be one of the options to accompany you later than having further time.
Development economist branko milanovic writing for the world bank, development economist morten jerven, and billionaire philanthropist bill gates have identified the maddison project, the penn world tables, and world bankimf data the world development indicators, as the three main sources of worldwide economic statistics such as gdp data, with the focus of the maddison project. With regards to balance of trade and payments, he cautioned that a measure of the balance of trade is an arbitrary and fearfully vague notion. Poor numbers is the first analysis of the production and use of african economic development statistics. You say that there are a litany of reasons for thinking that the economic statistics that we work with are misleading. How we are misled by african development statistics by. Building a history of how economic statistics about africa are produced and. Understanding contemporary africa download pdfepub. Coordinating aid distribution to the poorest countries requires identifying which countries are poor.
Africa by assistant professor morten jerven overdrive. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it find, read and cite all the research you need on researchgate. Chapter 7 numbers policy paradox the art of political. A couple of years later when my book poor numbers was published, i received an. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it, by morten jerven find, read and cite. Poor numbers is the first analysis of the manufacturing and use of african monetary enchancment statistics. In poor numbers i advocate a historical perspective on the statistical office in order to understand some of its current problems jerven, 20, 56. The statistical capacity of african states was greatly expanded in the late colonial and early postcolonial period, but it was greatly impaired during the economic crisis of the 1970s. The numbers substantially misstate the actual state of affairs. Their combined citations are counted only for the first article. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it cornell studies in political economy.
How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it, had been blocked from presenting his research on african statistical capacity at the uneca. Despite all of the problems, and the risks of garbage in, garbage out, jervens conclusion stresses the importance of numbers, calling for qualitative rigor and interdisciplinary approaches, and defends the concept of gdp as too important to be ignored, even if the numbers are too poor to be trusted blindly. The data are unreliable and potentially seriously misleading. How we are misled by african development statistics and what to do about it explained the problems with africas economic data. Even jerven seems aware that such a title could raise hackles. Poor numbersis the first analysis of the production and use of african economic development statistics. This was due to opposition to his ideas from, notably, the south african statistician general, pali lehohla. African symposia on statistical development in feb 2014. Morten jervens research shows how the statistical capacities of subsaharan african economies have fallen into disarray.
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